{"id":5297,"date":"2014-03-06T02:49:59","date_gmt":"2014-03-06T07:49:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/?p=5297"},"modified":"2014-03-06T16:07:08","modified_gmt":"2014-03-06T21:07:08","slug":"causes-and-implications-of-the-pause","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/?p=5297","title":{"rendered":"Causes and implications of the pause"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>That is the title of a <a href=\"http:\/\/judithcurry.com\/2014\/03\/04\/causes-and-implications-of-the-pause\/\">paper<\/a> attempting to explain (away) the 17-year nothing that happened while CAGW models were predicting warming driven by increasing CO2.  CO2 increased.  Measured GAT did not.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the money quote: &#8220;The most recent climate model simulations used in the AR5 indicate that the warming stagnation since 1998 is no longer consistent with model projections even at the 2% confidence level.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>That is an establishment climatologist&#8217;s cautious scientist-speak for &#8220;The IPCC&#8217;s anthropogenic-global-warming models are fatally broken. Kaput. Busted.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>I told you so.  I told you so.  I told you so!<\/p>\n<p>I even predicted it would happen this year, yesterday on my Ask Me Anything on Slashdot.  This wasn&#8217;t actually brave of me: the Economist noticed that the GAT trend was about to fall to worse than 5% fit to the IPCC models six months ago.<\/p>\n<p>Here is my next prediction &#8211; and remember, I have been <em>consistently<\/em> right about these.  The next phase of the comedy will feature increasingly frantic attempts to bolt epicycles onto the models. These epicycles will have names like &#8220;ENSO&#8221;, &#8220;standing wave&#8221; and &#8220;Atlantic Oscillation&#8221;. <\/p>\n<p>All these attempts will <em>fail<\/em>, both predictively and retrodictively. It&#8217;s junk science all the way down.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>That is the title of a paper attempting to explain (away) the 17-year nothing that happened while CAGW models were predicting warming driven by increasing CO2. CO2 increased. Measured GAT did not. Here&#8217;s the money quote: &#8220;The most recent climate model simulations used in the AR5 indicate that the warming stagnation since 1998 is no&hellip; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/?p=5297\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Causes and implications of the pause<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,11],"tags":[31],"class_list":["post-5297","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics","category-science","tag-agw","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5297","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5297"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5297\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5300,"href":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5297\/revisions\/5300"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5297"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5297"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5297"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}