{"id":449,"date":"2008-09-12T06:03:32","date_gmt":"2008-09-12T11:03:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/?p=449"},"modified":"2008-09-12T15:08:16","modified_gmt":"2008-09-12T20:08:16","slug":"the-obama-campaign-smells-of-defeat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/?p=449","title":{"rendered":"The Obama campaign smells of defeat"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>My normal style on this blog is to write think pieces.  I post when I have an idea I need to grapple with; the process of writing and researching helps me organize and sharpen my thinking.  Sometimes, the process changes my mind about an issue.<\/p>\n<p>This once, I&#8217;m posting to report a gut feeling I&#8217;ve been getting more and more strongly in the last two weeks.  It started with Barack Obama&#8217;s VP choice of Joe Biden, got stronger when McCain tapped Sarah Palin, and has become overwhelming in the last two days.  My feeling is this: Barack Obama is toast.  He&#8217;s  done, stick a fork in him.  It&#8217;s not that I think the McCain\/Palin ticket is going to win, it&#8217;s that I feel strongly that the Obama\/Biden ticket is going to lose.<\/p>\n<p>Note: This is not partisan cheering I&#8217;m doing.  I&#8217;m not a McCain fan: I&#8217;ve never forgiven him for the the McCain-Feingold &#8220;campaign finance reform&#8221; bill, which I consider the most atrocious rape-job on the First Amendment in my lifetime.  And I agree with Matt Welch&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reason.com\/news\/show\/118937.html\">portrait of an authoritarian maverick<\/a>; McCain&#8217;s is in many ways a frighteningly authoritarian personality. I have, at best, very mixed feelings about seeing him in the White House.<\/p>\n<p>No, what I&#8217;m reacting to is a gut sense that the wheels are coming off the Obama bandwagon and it&#8217;s headed for a big, ugly crackup.  I would no longer be surprised if Obama melted down in a serious way during the debates, though I don&#8217;t think keeping his cool will save him from being trounced.  I don&#8217;t even think the election&#8217;s going to be close anymore.<\/p>\n<p>Why?  Lots of things.  Poll numbers. Sarah Palin. The hysterically vituperative reaction to Sarah Palin from the left and the media (which I think is a gift beyond price to the Republicans).  The way Obama himself seems to be fraying around the edges, losing his cool, gaffe frequency increasing. Democratic supporters dissing him in Duryea. I smell desperation and failure; I see the Democratic party, yet again, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.<\/p>\n<p>OK, I&#8217;ve said it on the record.  When the votes are counted, I&#8217;ll take the kudos or the lumps for it.<\/p>\n<p>UPDATE: Democrats&#8217; polling league in a generic contest has <a href=\"http:\/\/www.gallup.com\/poll\/110263\/Battle-Congress-Suddenly-Looks-Competitive.aspx\">collapsed<\/a>.  Control of Congress is in play.  Wow.  Just wow.  Considering how hard the Republicans have been fucking up and alienating their base, this is <em>astonishing<\/em>.  EPIC FAIL.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>My normal style on this blog is to write think pieces. I post when I have an idea I need to grapple with; the process of writing and researching helps me organize and sharpen my thinking. Sometimes, the process changes my mind about an issue. This once, I&#8217;m posting to report a gut feeling I&#8217;ve&hellip; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/?p=449\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">The Obama campaign smells of defeat<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-449","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/449","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=449"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/449\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":454,"href":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/449\/revisions\/454"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=449"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=449"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=449"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}