{"id":3954,"date":"2011-11-23T14:23:09","date_gmt":"2011-11-23T19:23:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/?p=3954"},"modified":"2014-03-11T19:49:32","modified_gmt":"2014-03-11T23:49:32","slug":"all-our-models-are-wrong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/?p=3954","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;All [our] models are wrong&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s Climategate II, with another email dump from the CRU team, and Phil Jones writing that &#8220;All [our] models are wrong&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>I haven&#8217;t read the new dump yet.  But the quotes journalists have been pulling out are enough to tell me there are no surprises here.<\/p>\n<p>Well, that is, no surprises if you&#8217;ve read my previous posts about <a href=\"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/?p=1642\">error cascades<\/a> and the <a href=\"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/?p=1631\">sociology of AGW alarmism<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>What we&#8217;re seeing in these emails is exactly the phenomenon I described; the &#8220;team&#8221; launched an error cascade that is now hooked into green-shirt political agendas.  Peter Thorne: &#8220;The science is being manipulated to put a political spin on it which for all our sakes might not be too clever in the long run&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>Thorne also confirmed what I&#8217;ve written about several times on this blog: &#8220;Observations do not show rising temperatures throughout the tropical troposphere unless you accept one single study and approach and discount a wealth of others. This is just downright dangerous.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>That is, the CRU team itself understands that empirical confirmation for greenhouse warming is lacking.  The atmosphere is not doing what the AGW models predict.  &#8220;Basic problem is that all models are wrong&#8221;, writes Phil Jones, bluntly, &#8220;not got enough middle and low level clouds.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s a fitting epitaph for anthropogenic global warming.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s Climategate II, with another email dump from the CRU team, and Phil Jones writing that &#8220;All [our] models are wrong&#8221;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,11],"tags":[31],"class_list":["post-3954","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics","category-science","tag-agw","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3954","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3954"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3954\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5438,"href":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3954\/revisions\/5438"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3954"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3954"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/esr.ibiblio.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3954"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}